인구·사회 변화 예측을 통한 2040 육아지원정책 연구

Abstract

□ 미래 정책 연구는 불확실함에 대하여 예측하고 이에 대한 정책의 개괄적 방향과 이를 바탕으로 한 세부적 과제를 제시하여야 한다는 특징을 가짐

□ 따라서 방법론의 옳고 그름에 따라 연구의 방향이 결정되는 것은 아니며 경험하지 못한 미래에 대하여 예측하고 큰 틀에서 그림을 그린다는 것에 특징이 있음

□ 그 중에서도 육아지원정책에 대한 미래 연구는 현재까지 다각도로 진행된 바 없으며 경제사회현상의 모든 부분의 영향을 받는 육아지원정책의 특성상 큰 그림을 그리고 이에 대하여 논의할 필요성을 가짐

□ 본 연구는 2040년의 육아지원정책의 모습을 큰 틀에서 그려봄으로서 향후 세부적 정책 과제를 제시함에 있어 참고자료를 생성하고자 함

This study predicted the demographic change in 2040 through the literature and predicted the state of childcare support policy in 2040. As a result of the analysis of various literatures and previous studies, 2040 expects 1) aging low birth rate, 2) strengthening gender equality, 3) diversifying family structure, 4) rapid change and progress in science and technology, and 5) diversifying occupational groups. . To date, various plans related to childcare support policies have been established, but there are no policy plans that are expected 20 years after mid / long term. Of course, it would be impossible to accurately predict the situation in 2040 and set specific policy directions. Therefore, this study also has a limitation that it only draws and estimates the future direction loosely. In addition, there is a limit to including a critique of the current policy because it is expected to the future at the present time. This study predicts future society and predicts childcare support policy by using scenario analysis, expert survey, and policy deliberation among future research methods. the results are as follow. First of all, in 2040, both experts and the general public have a low birth rate, aging population, various family types, decreased marriage rate, increased participation in women's economic activities, increased desire for family balance, increased income polarization, and the development of AI and robots. Expected. Next, the parental support policy of 2040, which is expected by the general public, is expected to increase the importance of parental leave for men due to the spread of gender equal culture, and the parental leave system for women due to the increase in women's participation in economic activities. It was also expected to be more important. Experts anticipate parental support policies in 2040 focusing primarily on changes in economic conditions, such as a decrease in the number of policy subjects, a change in family structure, and an increase in income polarization and unemployment. Diversification of needs and expansion of caring functions of robots should be considered. As a result of this study, important factors affecting childcare support policy in 2040 were 1) increased participation in women's economic activities, 2) reduced number of children, and 3) diversified family types. The direction of child care support policy is as follows. Childcare support policies are needed to strengthen the role of local communities, build a safe parenting environment through the use of science and technology, diversify care forms by diversifying labor forms, and establish a childcare support environment for unification.