저출생시대 육아인프라 추이분석 및 대응 방안(Ⅱ): 영유아 교육·보육 지원 인프라 중심으로

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the current state and trend of childcare centers and kindergartens while low fertility is accelerating, and to suggest responsive measures for the future through diagnosis of regional imbalance and forecast of childcare centers and kindergartens. To attain this goal, this study first investigated the population trend among 0~6 years old children, examined the trends of the number and capacity of infant education and childcare institutions by region, and forecasted the trends of the number and the capacity of such institutions, as well the number of infants enrolled in such institutions and the number of childcare center or kindergartens in the future based on the demographic project made by the Statistics Korea. Secondly, this study diagnosed the balance in the demand and supply of childcare centers and kindergartens among the regions. Thirdly, it found out the state of people’s using the childcare centers and kindergarten around their residence and identified the demand for policy to improve the accessibility to relevant infrastructure. Fourthly, through the GIS analysis, this study checked the supply-to-demand ratio of the childcare center and kindergartens in each region and named the vulnerable regions in this regard. Finally, it suggested a policy direction based on the research results. As of December 2022, the number of infant aged 0~6 years turned out to be 2,204,950, and the infant population has continued to decline due to the low fertility rate while the degree of decline was found to be different depending on the region. As of December 2022, the number of the childcare center across the country was 30,923, while that of the kindergartens was 8,562, showing a decreasing trend by more than 20% for the last five years. By using the future population projection, the study examined the trend of the number of childcare centers and kindergartens of the next five years and concluded that the number should be reduced by more than 10,000. The current study also analyzed the balance in the supply of childcare centers and kindergartens. As a result of calculating the coefficient of inequity in the supply rate of cities and provinces throughout the country based on the capacity of the total childcare centers and kindergartens, Jeonnam-do had the highest inequity coefficient while it was Chungbuk-do when the analysis was restricted to the national and public institutions. When the equity analysis was performed by city, county and district, the regional variations were larger than when the analysis was performed by city and province and the highest inequity coefficient was found in Busan. As a result of investigating the demands for the childcare center and kindergarten infrastructure, most of the parents answered that national/ public childcare centers and kindergartens were necessary. In addition, according to the case study the residential areas in which the waiting time to enroll in a childcare center or kindergarten was 500 days or more were 35 in total, of which the majority were in the metropolitan areas of larger population, such as Seoul and Gyeonggi-do. The current study performed the 2SFCA analysis among the GIS analysis methods. THe infants and toddlers were also separated in the analysis. The results of the analysis showed a significant difference between the vulnerable regions with respect to the institutions for infants, and those with respect to the institutions for toddlers. In the case of infant institutions, eups and myeons in Jeollado and Gyeongsang-do were found to be more vulnerable, while populous metropolitan regions turned out to be more vulnerable in the education infrastructure for toddlers. For the short-term demand estimation of the childcare centers and kindergartens, this study used the artificial neural network model in the machine learning methods, and searched for a method to diagnose the supply. In detail, it divided the cities, counties and districts throughout the country into two groups and built a model which forecasts the number of children to be enrolled in the childcare centers and/or kindergartens in 2022. The variables inserted to forecast the number of children to be enrolled in the childcare centers or kindergartens in 2022 were the population aged 0-5 years as of 2021, the number of newly married couple in 2022, and the number of employed, the female employment rate, the total employment rate, and the net migration rate of 0-4 years old population, in that order. As a result of building a model, a more stable forecasting was possible in the regions of larger population while it was more unpredictable in the regions of less population. By integrating the results of GIS analysis on the pregnancy and childbirth infrastructure of the last year and the results of GIS analysis on the childcare centers and kindergartens, this study has selected the regions which have low childcare infrastructure index. The regions with low childcare infrastructure index were 25 in total, including Ulleung County in Gyeongsangbuk-do, Ongjin County in Incheon Metropolitan City, and Sinan County in Joellanam-do. Based on these research results, the study has suggested a supply plan for childcare centers and kindergarten and policy development using a scientific method, enhancement of the support for the childcare center and kindergarten infrastructure in the vulnerable regions, and the improvement of regional equity in the childcare centers and kindergartens.